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So what are the odds that Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate? According to the most recent polling analysis by Nate Silver, the odds shake out to look almost exactly the same, but flipped.
The Senate is looking increasingly likely to remain in the control of the Republicans, who currently have 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in three of the six “tossup” races, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls. According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have a 5 in 6 chance (82.4%) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 6 chance (17.6%) of taking over.
Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.
With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking pretty good. In fact, they’re looking almost exactly as good as the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.
Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 205 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 18 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans currently have 199 “safe” seats (19 likely and 26 leaning). If those numbers hold up, that means the Democrats only need 13 of the 31 tossup seats to attain the 218-majority in the House. Republicans, meanwhile, need to win 19. The one thing that could work in Republicans’ favor is that 29 of the 31 tossups are currently held by Republicans.
After crunching all the latest numbers, FiveThirtyEight set the odds Wednesday dramatically in the Democrats’ favor. According to Silver’s analysis, the Democrats have a 5 in 6 chance (84%) of winning control of the House, while Republicans have only a 1 in 6 chance (16%). That’s about a 10-point improvement for Democrats since two weeks ago, but about where the odds were back in mid-September.
Silver projects the most likely outcome to be Democrats ending up with 234 seats and Republicans with 201. He gives Democrats a 10% chance of gaining more than 60 seats, as well as a 10% chance of gaining fewer than 19 seats. Democrats thus have an 80% chance of winning 19 to 60 seats, and are most likely to win around 38 seats, according to his models.